Persebaya Surabaya Favoured to Secure Victory Against Madura United in Heated Derby

This analysis delves into the upcoming Indonesia Super League clash between Madura United and Persebaya Surabaya, scheduled for Saturday, January 3rd, 2026. Considering recent form, head-to-head records, and available odds, we present a comprehensive prediction. **Recent Form Analysis:** Madura United's recent form presents a mixed bag. Their last five matches show two wins, one draw, and two losses. Their high-scoring victory against Semen Padang (5-1) is notable, but defeats against Borneo FC Samarinda and Persib Bandung highlight defensive vulnerabilities. Their home form is generally positive, with a tendency to score goals, but also to concede. Persebaya Surabaya, on the other hand, shows a more consistent performance in their last five outings with one win and four draws. While they haven't secured many victories, they have demonstrated resilience by avoiding defeat. Their away form has been consistent, showing a tendency to score and concede goals. **Head-to-Head Analysis:** The head-to-head record heavily favours Persebaya Surabaya. Over the last ten encounters, Persebaya Surabaya has dominated with a significant number of wins and a couple of draws. This historical trend suggests a psychological advantage and a tactical blueprint that Madura United has struggled to overcome. The recent matches underscore a clear tactical edge for Persebaya Surabaya. **Match Odds and Predictions:** The bookmakers favor Persebaya Surabaya, which is reflected in the provided odds. The Asian Handicap is set at 0, indicating a closely contested match, but the slight edge in favour of Persebaya. The Over/Under market is set at 2.5 goals. Given the attacking nature of both teams and their tendency to score and concede, 'Over' goals appears to be a good choice. **Prediction Rationale:** 1. **Match Result (1X2):** Given Persebaya Surabaya's superior head-to-head record and slightly better recent form, we predict a win for Persebaya Surabaya. They have consistently performed well against Madura United in the past, and their tactical approach seems to trouble their opponents. 2. **Asian Handicap:** With the Asian Handicap at 0, backing Persebaya Surabaya seems reasonable. This implies that even a draw in favour of Persebaya Surabaya would result in a win. This is due to their better performance in head-to-head games and consistent form. 3. **Over/Under:** Both teams have displayed an inclination to score and concede. The history of their matches and recent form suggests that the match will likely see more than 2.5 goals. Therefore, the 'Over' bet is recommended. **Conclusion:** Based on these factors, Persebaya Surabaya is the favorite to win this match. The historical dominance, the slightly better recent form, and the odds offered by bookmakers all support this prediction. Expect an exciting match with goals and a likely victory for Persebaya Surabaya. This prediction is made considering the statistical data and current form of the two teams, but in football, anything can happen. Remember to gamble responsibly.