Liga Portugal 1 Showdown: Analysing the Tactical Battle Between Vitoria Guimaraes and Nacional da Madeira in a High-Stakes Encounter
A detailed analysis of the Liga Portugal 1 match between Vitoria Guimaraes and Nacional da Madeira reveals key tactical insights. Vitoria Guimaraes has a low shot conversion rate of just 8.7% this season, with an expected goals (xG) efficiency of 0.89, which is below the league average. In contrast, Nacional da Madeira demonstrates a superior offensive finishing rate, with a conversion rate of 12.4% and an xG efficiency of 1.15, ranking third in the league. The home team's key pass success rate is 62%, lower than the away team's 71%. Vitoria Guimaraes' passing value in the final third is also lower. Nacional da Madeira exhibits significant midfield control, achieving a 55% possession rate with a conversion speed of 4.2 times per 15 minutes, which is 1.3 times faster than the home team. Additionally, Nacional da Madeira covers an average distance of 112 kilometers per match, with 28 high-intensity sprints, exceeding their opponent by four. Nacional da Madeira's defensive capabilities are noteworthy, recording 14.3 tackles per game (second in the league), 9.1 interceptions (third), and an 81% clearance success rate, which leads the league. Their offensive opportunity conversion rate stands at 34%, surpassing Vitoria Guimaraes' 22%, and their 1v1 success rate of 67% is among the league's best. xG data shows that Nacional da Madeira has an average xG of 1.38 over their last five games, with 1.2 actual goals, achieving a conversion efficiency of 99.3%, significantly higher than Vitoria Guimaraes' 76.8%. Nacional da Madeira also excels in key passes outside the penalty area, accounting for 38% of such passes and generating 42% of their xG from these areas, indicating tactical precision. Based on the data analysis, a model predicts a 63.4% probability of an away win, with Nacional da Madeira showing comprehensive superiority in both attack and defense. The recommendation is Nacional da Madeira +0.5.
