A detailed analysis of the Africa Cup of Nations match between Equatorial Guinea and Algeria. Algeria's overall attacking efficiency, with a conversion rate of 12.3%, is lower than Equatorial Guinea's 14.7%. However, Algeria demonstrates a superior expected goals (xG) efficiency (0.83) compared to their opponents (0.61). Algeria also exhibits a clear advantage in ball control, evidenced by their higher key pass success rate (68% vs 54%) and front-third pass value (2.1 vs 1.3). They dominate the midfield (30-50 meter zone) with 62% possession and a conversion speed that's 1.2 seconds faster on average. Furthermore, Algeria leads in total running distance (109km) and high-intensity sprints (23), indicating sustained pressure. Algeria holds a significant defensive edge, outperforming Equatorial Guinea in tackles (18), interceptions (14), and clearances (9). Their front-third interception success rate of 71% effectively limits the opponents' breakthroughs. Despite creating 27 scoring opportunities, Algeria has only converted 2 goals, resulting in a low chance conversion rate of 7.4%, which is below their season average. The xG comparison (2.1 vs 1.5) suggests that Algeria's actual goals scored are lower than expected, highlighting their struggles in finishing. Considering the prediction of under 2.25 goals, Algeria's control, coupled with their scoring inefficiency and a defensive-minded approach, suggests a high probability of a low-scoring game. Recommendation: Under 2.25 Goals.