Premier League Clash: Analysing Nottingham Forest's Offensive Prowess and Everton's Defensive Struggles Ahead of a Crucial Matchup

Nottingham Forest's recent attacking efficiency has been consistent, with an average of 18.7% conversion rate in the past 5 matches, surpassing Everton's 12.3%. Forest also holds an 82% key pass success rate compared to Everton's 75% and boasts a Passing Value (PAq) of 2.13 per 90 minutes, superior to Everton's 1.89. Midfield control data shows Forest recovering the ball 15.4 times per game, combined with 11.2 high-intensity sprints, effectively limiting the opponent's transition attacks. Everton's average running distance this season is only 109.3km, ranking fourth from the bottom in the Premier League, hindering their offensive and defensive connection efficiency. Forest's defensive system shows significant data advantages: 14.1 tackles per game (3rd in the Premier League) and 12.8 interceptions (5th), combined with Everton's forwards' 0.47 non-penalty xG/90 (6th from bottom in the league), forming effective suppression. Everton's defence has prominent issues - 19.3 clearances per game, accompanied by 5.6 fatal mistakes (most in the Premier League). While Forest's offensive xG is only 1.4 per game, their conversion rate is 1.8 per game (73% conversion rate in the last 5 games). Everton's goalkeeper save success rate is only 68.4% (18th in the league). The expected total xG value for this match is 2.1 (Forest 1.3, Everton 0.8). Considering the differences in defensive intensity and conversion efficiency between the two sides, the recommendation is: Under 2.25 goals.