Chelsea's recent attacking efficiency has been notable, with a 17.8% conversion rate from their last six matches, surpassing AFC Bournemouth's 9.4%. Their expected goals (xG) efficiency stands at 0.83 per game, significantly higher than AFC Bournemouth's 0.51. The Blues also exhibit superior key passing success, with 41.2% accuracy, and a valuable 0.78 passes per game in the final 30 meters, outperforming their opponents by over 15% in both metrics. In midfield control, Chelsea maintains a 62.3% possession rate, converting into 28.7 attacks, 45% more than AFC Bournemouth's 18.4. Physical data reveals Chelsea players cover 112.4 kilometers on average per game, with 39.8 high-intensity sprints, both exceeding their rivals' figures by 10%. Chelsea's defence has been robust, completing 127 tackles (25.4 per game) in the last five matches, with a 71.3% interception success rate and a clearance efficiency value of 1.23 per game, placing them among the top five in the Premier League for all three defensive metrics. Their xG to actual goals ratio is 1.05, indicating stable chance conversion. While AFC Bournemouth generates 1.45 xG per game, their goal conversion rate is only 63%, less than Chelsea's 82%. Over their last three games, Chelsea's cumulative xG value is 8.2, but they have only scored six goals, leaving a surplus of 3.2 goals. Considering both teams' defensive strength and xG deviations, the match is likely to see fewer goals than anticipated. Prediction: Under 3.25 goals.
*For reference only, not betting advice
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