Chinese Basketball Association
Beijing Ducks
85 - 91
Zhejiang Lions
Total Goals
Over
177.50
Under
177.50

CBA Match Preview: Beijing Beiqi vs. Zhejiang Fangxindou at 19:35. This CBA match has been confirmed. Beijing Beiqi's overall offensive finishing conversion rate is 38.2%, higher than Zhejiang's 29.1%. However, their xG efficiency is 0.78, lower than Zhejiang's 1.05, indicating that Zhejiang is better at capitalising on opportunities. Beijing Beiqi's key pass success rate is 42%, better than Zhejiang's 35%. However, Zhejiang creates 0.8 threats every 30 seconds in the final third, compared to Beijing Beiqi's 0.5. Beijing Beiqi has a 54% control rate versus 46%, but Zhejiang's average transition speed is 12 seconds for a counterattack, faster than Beijing Beiqi's 16 seconds. The total running distance for Beijing Beiqi is 283km, slightly exceeding Zhejiang's 279km, but Zhejiang has 87 high-intensity sprints, 15 more than Beijing Beiqi. Zhejiang Fangxindou dominates in interceptions (19-13), tackles (14-9), and clearances (11-7) in terms of defensive data, especially with a 68% interception efficiency in front of the penalty area. Their ability to seize opportunities in attack is outstanding, with a 32% scoring chance conversion rate, 15 percentage points higher than Beijing Beiqi. The xG comparison of 1.05:0.78 confirms their efficient finishing. The expected goals model shows that Zhejiang's actual score (89 points) exceeds the xG value by only 2.3 points, reflecting the stability of their tactical execution. Although Beijing Beiqi has a higher possession rate, their turnover conversion rate is high (18%). Zhejiang only committed 12 turnovers throughout the game, with 80% occurring in the backcourt. Combining this with the total running distance of 562km, which is lower than the expected 176.5, the recommendation is: Under 176.5.

*For reference only, not betting advice
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