Chelsea are currently 5th in the English Premier League, with a mixed overall performance. Their home win rate is only 44.4%, and their recent form has been inconsistent, with just one win in the last six matches. The team faces injury problems, with key players missing from the defence and midfield, potentially affecting their defensive stability and midfield control. Bournemouth are in 15th place, with an unremarkable overall record. Their away form is particularly weak, with a win rate of only 11.1%. They are winless in their last six matches. Although they have some attacking firepower, their defence has significant vulnerabilities, conceding many goals. In head-to-head matches, Chelsea has a slight advantage, but recent encounters have seen many draws. Chelsea has not shown overwhelming dominance at home. Despite Chelsea's higher ranking and stronger squad, their unsettled lineup and recent unstable form raise questions about their performance in this match. Whether Bournemouth's poor away record can be improved against an injured Chelsea is worth noting. The home side's water level has increased, indicating an intention to mitigate risk. Regarding the number of goals, the mainstream setting remains around a median of 3, but the related water levels do not strongly support more goals. Considering Chelsea's unstable attack and Bournemouth's recent defensive lapses while also scoring occasionally, this setting reflects a balanced approach, without a clear bias towards over goals. The adjustments in the data are not unfounded, accurately capturing Chelsea's current uncertainties and the decline in market confidence. The move from an initial one-goal handicap to a half-goal handicap lowers the threshold for Bournemouth but also expresses doubt about Chelsea's ability to cover the original handicap. Prediction: Bournemouth +1.