AS Roma's recent form in Serie A shows a mixed bag, with three wins and two losses in their last five league matches. At home, they've been strong, securing four victories in their last five games, conceding an average of only 0.7 goals per match. Their defensive solidity is further highlighted by conceding just 10 goals in 16 league matches, a statistic placing them among the best in Serie A. Genoa's recent performance has been less impressive, managing only one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five outings. Their away form has been particularly weak, with only one win in their last six away matches, where they've conceded over 1.8 goals per game on average. They suffered a 0-1 defeat to Atalanta in their previous match. Historically, AS Roma holds an advantage over Genoa, winning three of their last five encounters, with one draw and one loss. At home, AS Roma has won their last three matches against Genoa, indicating a strong psychological edge. AS Roma's set-piece conversion rate is a noteworthy 38%, with Dybala's playmaking abilities crucial in the attacking third. Dovbyk's return from injury is expected to bolster their attacking presence. Genoa averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per match. They are currently dealing with the absence of seven key players due to injury, forcing a defensive restructuring. Their away possession rate is below 40%, placing them under considerable pressure. AS Roma is expected to employ a 3-4-2-1 formation, with over 60% possession at home. Dybala will be central in linking attacks from the flanks, with Dovbyk providing a focal point. Set pieces and crosses from the wings will be their primary attacking strategies. Mancini's defensive leadership has solidified their defence, conceding only three goals in their last five home games, underscoring their strong home form. Genoa is likely to counter with a 5-3-2 formation. Facing his former club, De Rossi is expected to set up a defensive strategy to withstand the pressure, relying on the pace of Vitinha and Retegui to launch counterattacks. Recommendation: AS Roma -0.75 Score prediction: 2:0, 2:1