AC Milan has demonstrated consistent performance this season, currently holding second place in the league. Their record stands at nine wins, five draws, and one loss in 15 Serie A matches, with 24 goals scored and 13 conceded. However, the team's recent schedule across multiple competitions has taken its toll. In their last 10 matches across all competitions, they've only secured four victories. Adding to their challenges, key players are sidelined due to injuries, impacting both the defensive and offensive lines, and testing the depth of the squad. Verona, on the other hand, has had a disappointing season and is currently in the relegation zone. They've managed only two wins, six draws, and seven losses in 15 matches, accumulating 12 points and ranking 18th. Their attack has struggled, and they've conceded a significant number of goals. Despite a crucial away victory in their last match, their away form remains weak. Moreover, Verona will be without several key players, including a full-back and their attacking core, which will significantly weaken their offensive and defensive capabilities. Consequently, they may struggle against a strong opponent. The home team is expected to control the game due to their overall strength. The high odds seem designed to discourage betting on the home team, aiming to reduce the payout if AC Milan wins. The current handicap of one goal to one-and-a-half goals offers Verona considerable leeway, and the market doesn't completely dismiss the away team's defensive resilience. Given the clear market favouring the home team, the data adjustments suggest a lack of confidence in the home team winning by more than two goals. Therefore, the data adjustments favour Verona to cover the spread, and Verona at +1.25 appears to have good value.