Burnley's recent attacking performance has been a concern, with a finishing conversion rate of only 8.3% in their last five matches, ranking them fourth-worst in the Premier League. Their expected goals (xG) efficiency of 0.78 is also below the league average of 1.05. Meanwhile, Everton boasts a key pass success rate of 41% (5th in the league), although their attacking passing value is a modest 0.89 (18th in the Premier League). Burnley's midfield control averages 47% over the last three games, demonstrating a 12% increase in transition speed compared to last season. They also show a high-intensity sprint percentage of 23%, placing them 6th in the Premier League. Both teams' running distances have been under 105km. Everton's high pressing strategy has caused them to concede goals earlier, with their average time of conceding shifting to the first 15 minutes. Burnley averages 14.3 tackles per game (3rd in the Premier League) with an interception success rate of 68% (7th in the league). Their clearance conversion rate stands at 32%, limiting the opponent's expected goals (xG) contribution by -0.45. Everton has seen counter-attacks after being dispossessed account for 41% of their xG in the last four matches, despite a poor conversion rate of just 11% (19th in the Premier League). An xG comparison reveals that Burnley's expected goals are 1.12 (actual 0.8), while Everton's are 1.35 (actual 1.0). The combined xG of 2.47 is close to the over/under line of 2.25. Considering Burnley's counter-attacking efficiency (0.9 xG per 15 minutes) and Everton's inefficient central penetration (key pass conversion rate of 19%), the probability of under 2.25 goals is estimated at 67%.