Lecce's attacking efficiency this season has been low, with an average goal conversion rate of just 9.7% and an xG efficiency of 0.85, below the Serie A average. Como, on the other hand, boasts a superior attacking performance, with a 12.3% goal conversion rate and an xG efficiency of 1.08. In terms of passing, Como's key pass success rate of 61.4% is 12 percentage points higher than Lecce's, with their passes in the final 30 meters valued at 2.3 times per game. Lecce's midfielders average a possession time of 3.2 seconds, while Como utilises rapid transition tactics, resulting in 5.1 fast counter-attack opportunities per game. Lecce covers 112.4 km in total running distance but only has 17 high-intensity sprints, whereas Como achieves 23 sprints, predominantly in the opponent's half. Como's defence averages 14.7 interceptions and 9.2 interceptions per game, forming a robust defensive barrier. Lecce's clearance error rate is 28%, exposing defensive vulnerabilities. In terms of attacking efficiency, Como demonstrates stronger chance conversion, with a 34% conversion rate in the last five games compared to Lecce's 21%. The xG model predicts a total expected goal of 1.95, with Como's xG defensive value being 0.72, suppressing Lecce's offensive expectation of 1.23. Considering Lecce's less than 40% shot accuracy in three consecutive games and Como's goalkeeper's 68% save success rate, the match is likely to have a low-scoring outcome. Prediction: Under 2.25 goals.
*For reference only, not betting advice
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