Supercoppa Italiana Semi-Final Showdown: Tactical Battles and Key Absences Set the Stage for a Tight Encounter Between Napoli and AC Milan in Riyadh

Napoli's recent form has been inconsistent, with a record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses in their last 10 matches. Their home form has been strong, remaining unbeaten in the league at home with 6 wins and 1 draw in 7 games. However, the congested schedule has impacted their attacking efficiency. Although nominally the home team, the match will be played in a neutral venue in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, depriving them of a true home advantage. AC Milan has demonstrated consistent form and resilience recently, losing only 1 of their last 10 matches across all competitions. They have performed particularly well against strong opponents, remaining unbeaten against Juventus and Inter Milan away from home this season. AC Milan's squad depth is superior to their opponents, with only three rotation players injured, allowing for ample tactical adjustments and rotation. From an offensive standpoint, Napoli faces significant structural challenges. The absence of several key midfield players due to injury has significantly reduced their ability to transition between attack and defence, impacting their overall attacking effectiveness. Their recent offensive struggles are evident, having scored only four goals in their last five matches. Despite Lukaku's return, his form is not yet fully recovered, limiting Napoli's ability to maintain a consistent attack, making it difficult to effectively pressure AC Milan's defence. In contrast, AC Milan has a more consistent overall form and more attacking options. Both teams face the absence of key players in attack, which is the primary factor limiting the total number of goals scored in the match. The tactical approach of this match is expected to be cautious. As a semi-final in a single-leg cup competition, any team that attacks recklessly within the first 90 minutes risks paying a heavy price. Napoli, hampered by midfield shortages, will likely adopt a defensive strategy, prioritising the strengthening of their defence. AC Milan, wary of their opponent's set-piece and counter-attack threats, will likely avoid excessive attacking, aiming to control possession and gradually create opportunities. This mutual restraint and the nature of the competition are likely to slow the pace of the game, with the battle concentrated in midfield, resulting in a tight, protracted contest. In conclusion, considering the limitations in both teams' attacks, the conservative nature of the cup competition, and data trends, the total goals scored are unlikely to exceed 2. Score prediction: 1-1, 0-1.